At Cirque Analytics, we pride ourselves on delivering sharp, evidence-based insights into the economic forces shaping our world. That’s why we’re excited to spotlight two recent opinion pieces by Scott Condie, an Associate Professor of Economics at Brigham Young University and a Principal Consultant for Cirque Analytics, that were recently published in the Deseret News. In the first piece, titled “Trade Deficits Happen for Good Reasons — Not Only from Unfair Practices”, Professor Condie dives into the complexities of the Trump administration’s newly enacted tariff policies and their implications for the U.S. economy. The second piece (“Financial and Economic Fall Out From Trump’s Tariff Policy Continues”), published after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs for most countries, addresses the ongoing uncertainty around these changes in trade policy. Professor Condie’s analysis cuts through the noise, offering an approachable perspective that is firmly grounded in economic rigor.
The Tariff Debate: Beyond the Headlines
On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration rolled out a sweeping tariff plan, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on imports from most countries (excluding Canada and Mexico), with steeper rates—up to 34% for China and 36% for Thailand—targeting nations with large U.S. trade deficits. Professor Condie notes that this policy hinges on a core assumption: that trade deficits signal unfair practices by other countries. But as he argues, this oversimplification misses the bigger picture.
“Other explanations for trade deficits aren’t sufficiently being considered,” Condie writes. He points out that deficits often reflect natural economic dynamics—like the U.S.’s strength as a consumer-driven economy—rather than just foreign manipulation. His piece challenges the tariff justification, suggesting that higher prices for goods like jasmine rice, cars, and household items will hit American consumers and businesses harder than many realize.
The Economic Ripple Effect
Addressing the short- and long-term impacts of these tariffs, Professor Condie predicts increased costs for households and uncertainty for companies like retailers and auto manufacturers—evidenced already by Stellantis pausing production and laying off 900 U.S. workers on April 3. Over time, he warns, the tariffs could further reshape the U.S. economy, boosting protected industries but potentially stifling growth in others, leading to layoffs and a less efficient market.
Increased Uncertainty
While President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariffs for countries except China, Professor Condie wrote that the mixed messages from the administration on the rationale for these changes in trade policy and implementation are injecting further uncertainty into the market: “This uncertainty surrounding the goal and eventual implementation of these tariffs increases the economic uncertainty surrounding them,” he wrote. Businesses and stakeholders “face a difficult investment decision as they try to guess at the place that tariff policy will land before making investment decisions and purchasing both finished goods and the raw and intermediate material needed for production in the U.S.”
Why It Matters
Professor Condie’s pieces aren’t just an academic exercise—they are a call to rethink how we approach trade policy, as well as how we perceive the justifications given for them. He argues that tariffs, while raising government revenue, often cost consumers more than they deliver in benefits, a point backed by economic consensus.
Policy-driven disruptions in the market, through tariffs or otherwise, can have further and unintentional consequences in the marketplace, as well. While protections on domestically-produced goods can boost certain sectors in the short term, such trade barriers can also distort markets and potentially lead to anticompetitive behavior.
For example, if importers are priced out of a market, an industry becomes more concentrated, which can reduce competitive pressure and facilitate collusive behavior. As another example, increased input costs due to tariffs may lead to increased vertical integration among domestic producers, which can heighten their control of key markets and stifle competition.
At Cirque Analytics, our work involves understanding the competitive forces in our economy and how they affect the incentives firms and individuals face. Uncertainty, confusion, and trade wars set the stage for strategic behavior and unexpected swings in firm profits and losses. These factors not only affect the likelihood of legal disputes, but also the measurement of the economic impact of economic decision-making.
Read More and Connect
We invite you to read Professor Condie’s full articles here and here, and explore his insights firsthand. His perspective exemplifies the thought leadership that drives Cirque Analytics—combining deep expertise with practical applications.